Global construction outlook for 2019 and beyond
Analytics company, Global Data, recently released its latest report entitled “Global Construction Outlook to 2023 – Q1 2019 Update”. According to the report, the pace of global construction output growth is expected to pick up marginally in 2019, reaching 3.4% from 3.2% in 2018, before rising to 3.5% in 2020.
The growth is entirely owed to an acceleration in construction activity in emerging markets, most notably China, where authorities have stepped up investment in infrastructure to prevent a continued slowdown. The company does predict that China’s construction growth will decline from 2021 onwards.
“The expansion in advanced economies will be fairly sluggish in 2019, with growth in North America slowing to 1.2%, and in Western Europe there will be a deceleration to 2.3%. However, over the remainder of the forecast period, there will be scope for slightly faster growth in the advanced economies, with monetary policy remaining accommodative, which will contribute to overall global construction growth,” comments Danny Richards, Lead Economist at GlobalData.
Following the sharp upturn in construction growth in South and South-East Asia in 2018, growth in this region will ease. South and South-East Asia is still predicted to be the fastest growing region in 2019 – 2023, with an average annual growth of 6.5%. The Middle East, Africa and Latin America will have sustained recoveries in construction output, but weakness in Turkey will pull down the pace or regional expansion in Eastern Europe.
“Risks to the overall forecast stem primarily from a possible escalation in the trade war between the US and China, which would ultimately impact on investment and constrain global economic growth. There is also a risk that China could overstep its efforts to support the economy, resulting in an unmanageable debt crisis, which would disrupt investment trends globally, most notably via the impact on demand in commodities markets,” says Danny.
Construction output in Western Europe will expand by 2.3% a year on average in 2019 – 2023, which is a marginal slowdown compared to the 2.4% pace in 2014 – 2018.
FROM BUILDING AND DECOR