The year 2023 was a year of economic recovery after three years of COVID-19 prevention and control. In the real estate market, the supply and demand relationship has undergone major changes, the external environment has increased uncertainty, and the growth momentum of the world economy and trade has weakened. China's building ceramics, sanitary ware industry is facing further contraction of market demand. National environmental protection and energy consumption policies continue to tighten, raw materials, labor and other costs rise, and the "volume-driven" development model is difficult to sustain.

In 2024, China's building ceramics and sanitary ware industry as a whole is facing the impact of adverse factors such as global economic weakness, declining market demand, further implementation of dual-carbon energy consumption policies, and cross-border competition, at the same time, with the continuous optimization of the supply side direction of the industry and the opportunities brought by the favorable national stimulus policies. In general, the industry as a whole is still expected to remain stable in 2024, but uncertainties still exist. The industry will continue to maintain the market environment of accelerated elimination, the overall concentration will be further improved, and the trend of differentiation will be more obvious.

Building ceramics industry operation in 2023

In the context of continuous contraction of domestic market demand and intensifying competition in the international market, in 2023, the national ceramic tile output continued the downward trend, to 6.73 billion square meters, down 8.0% from 2022.

In the first half of 2023, the fading of the impact of the epidemic and the recovery of consumption drove the industry economy to show an overall recovery trend, and after June, the market quickly became cold, and the pressure on enterprises to operate increased sharply. 

As the impact of the epidemic has subsided, China's ceramic tile exports have rebounded as a whole, in particular, the export trade to Indonesia, Malaysia, Peru, Israel and other major target markets has increased significantly. In 2023, China's total export of ceramic bricks has increased compared with 2021 and 2022, and is close to the level of 2020.

In recent years, the export volume of ceramic tiles has been hovering around 600 million square meters, due to the impact of capacity going to sea, and the local production capacity of many main target markets of original export products has increased, the scale of ceramic tile exports basically can not return to the scale of 770 million square meters in 2019 before the epidemic.

In 2023, the export price of ceramic tiles is 7.86 US dollars/square meter, which has fallen from the historical high of 8.53 US dollars/square meter in 2022, but is still significantly higher than in other years except 2022. Compared with the change of the export unit price of the world's major ceramic exporting countries in recent years, China's export unit price has increased rapidly, it reflects that China's export products have gradually withdrawn from the low-end market dominated by price war and climbed to the higher part of the value chain.

The export pattern of ceramic tiles continues in 2022, mainly flowing to the Philippines, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, Australia, Cambodia, Peru, Israel, Vietnam and other RCEP countries or regions, the top ten exports totaled 402 million square meters, accounting for 64.98% of the total exports, about 5 percentage points lower than the export concentration in 2021 and 2022.

According to incomplete statistics, in 2022, the total output of the world's major ceramic producing countries is 15.542 billion square meters, and China accounts for 47.03% of the global output. With the rise of other ceramic producing countries, China's output has fallen from more than 70% of its peak to less than 50%.

Operation of sanitary ware industry in 2023

In 2023, China's sanitary ceramics production was 186 million pieces, a slight decline of 1.59% compared with 2022 (revised output of 189 million pieces). Since 2021, due to the reduction of domestic and foreign market size, China's sanitary ceramics production and export volume have declined continuously. Due to the relatively larger contraction of the domestic market, the industry's external dependence has increased compared with that before 2021. China's sanitary ware industry economy is relatively dependent on foreign countries, and the export volume accounts for about 50% of the total output. 

In 2023, China's sanitary ceramics exports were 95.92 million pieces, down 10.07% from 2022, exports of 6.221 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decline of 34.07%, and the average export unit price was 64.85 US dollars/piece, down 26.70%. Export volume, export unit price and export volume fell three times, and export scale was further reduced. Among hardware and plastic bathroom products, the export volume of faucets, plastic bathtubs, shower rooms, and water tank accessories has increased to varying degrees compared with 2022, However, due to the general decline in the export unit price of most products except water tank accessories, exports have also declined to varying degrees.

In 2023, the export scale of China's sanitary ware products was further reduced, and the total export volume of six categories of sanitary ceramics, faucets, plastic bathtubs, shower rooms, toilet cover rings, and water tank accessories fell by 18.86% compared to last year, continuing the decline trend in 2022. Among them, the export value of sanitary ceramics declined the most. This was partly due to a general decline in exports due to exchange rate effects, more importantly, the main export markets of our products, especially the European and American markets, are weak, and large consumption such as home improvement is suppressed.

More importantly, the main export markets of our products, especially the European and American markets, are weak, and large consumption such as home improvement is suppressed. It continued to shrink from 2022 to 2023, and the decline further increased in 2023. The lack of demand in the destination country/region, the outward transfer of production capacity, and the recovery and expansion of production capacity in other sanitary ware producing countries are the main factors affecting China's sanitary ware exports.

The lack of demand in the destination country/region, the outward transfer of production capacity, and the recovery and expansion of production capacity in other sanitary ware producing countries are the main factors affecting China's sanitary ware exports. The export volume of sanitary ceramics, faucets and plastic bathtubs to the United States accounted for different degrees of decline compared with 2022. The export volume of sanitary ceramics, faucets and plastic bathtubs to the United States accounted for different degrees of decline compared with 2022. The importance of markets such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia has also increased, but due to the small overall market capacity, the growth of exports to these countries is not enough to offset the impact of the contraction of consumption in Europe and the United States.

According to the World Ceramics Review data, in 2022, the global import and export of sanitary ware totaled 3.7 million tons, down 5.6% from 2021, which is another decline since 2010 except for 2020, which was affected by the epidemic.

According to China Customs data, China's sanitary ware exports were 1,904,900 tons (roughly equivalent to the World Ceramics Review data), accounting for 51.48% of the global total imports and exports, an increase of about 2 percentage points from 2021, and continue to maintain the status of the world's first exporter.

The development prospect and prediction of China's architectural ceramics and sanitary ware industry in 2024

In 2024, China's building ceramics and sanitary ware industry as a whole is facing the impact of adverse factors such as global economic weakness, declining market demand, further implementation of dual-carbon energy consumption policies, and cross-border competition.

At the same time, with the continuous optimization of the supply side direction of the industry, the opportunity brought by the favorable national stimulus policies, In general, the industry as a whole is still expected to remain stable in 2024, but uncertainties still exist, the industry will continue to maintain the market environment of accelerated elimination, industrial concentration will be further improved, and the trend of differentiation will be more obvious.

In 2024, the industry should accelerate the development of new quality productivity and transform to the direction of intelligence, green and integration.

First, continue to take the transformation of digital and intelligent manufacturing as an opportunity to further improve quality, reduce cost and increase efficiency, achieve efficient utilization of production capacity, and significantly improve total factor productivity;

Second, promote industrial innovation with technological innovation, focus on increasing varieties, improving quality, establishing brands, and promoting the overall value of the industry; 

Third, on the basis of promoting the application of green low-carbon technologies and products, actively explore the integration and application of green no-burn new materials and traditional materials such as ceramics, and accelerate the transformation of the industry to green low-carbon development;

Fourth, grasp the rapid growth trend of the "one-stop" home improvement market, give play to the characteristics of the enterprise itself, and explore the road of service-oriented and integrated transformation;

Fifth, to meet the personalized and diversified market demand, especially the needs of products for aging, health and intelligence, actively research and development and promotion of related technologies, products and supporting services, to improve the quality and efficiency of industrial economic development.

(SOURCE: CHIAN BUILDING CERAMIC & SANITARYWARE ASSOCIATION)