One of the key business tasks that the ceramic market participants are forced to solve is the search for new overseas markets. Our analysts developed a step-by-step algorithm for solving this problem, based on the use of big data, which are processed by the IndexBox AI Platform. The decision-making logic is shown in the figure below.

In the process of determining the best export prospects, it is necessary to answer four key questions: 

1. Which markets performed best in terms of ceramic tile sales in the last 5 years? And which markets were among the outsiders?

2. Which countries are the most promising, in terms of ceramic tile consumption growth, and which ones are already saturated?

3. In which countries are local producers unable to satisfy the increasing demand for ceramic tiles? Or, in some cases, which countries do not produce ceramic tile, at all?

4. Which markets are the most profitable for ceramic tile producers?

So, the first question: Which markets performed best in terms of ceramic tile sales in the last 5 years? And which markets were among the outsiders?In order to determine the largest consumer markets, compare the volumes and dynamics of the countries producing ceramic tiles and porcelain stoneware. 

Following the review, we see that the target interest is represented by large and growing markets, such as China (6.1 billion sq. m.), India (793 million sq. m.), Vietnam (536 million sq. m.), Indonesia (407 million sq. m.) and Iran (393 million sq. m.).

Next question: Which countries are the most promising, in terms of ceramic tile consumption growth, and which ones are already saturated?

In order to answer the second question and identify countries whose market is far from saturation, we estimate the average per capita consumption and its dynamics. 

The diagram enables identifying markets with a large and growing average per capita consumption. This group includes the United Arab Emirates (12 square meters per person), Vietnam (5.6 square meters/person), Saudi Arabia (4.5 square meters per capita), China (4.3 square meters per capita), Chile (3.6 square meters per capita), Peru (3.4 square meters per capita) and some other countries. A large and growing per capita consumption signifies consistently high popularity of tiles in these markets.

In the third step, we shall answer the following question: In which countries are local producers unable to satisfy the increasing demand for ceramic tiles? Or, in some cases, which countries do not produce ceramic tile at all?

Further, our task is to identify countries with a high share of imports, which will testify of the existing infrastructure for importers and market prospects for organizing new supplies. 

The diagram shows that Chile (65 million square meters), Thailand (55M square meters), Russia (53M square meters), Saudi Arabia (47M square meters) and Peru (36M square meters) are large and fast-growing importers of ceramic tiles and porcelain stoneware. On the other hand, the U.S. continues to boast the largest volume of imports (181M square meters), though it declined slightly over the recent years.

Finally, we determine the countries where imports are the most profitable. Define countries with high and growing import prices. 

Since this category features countries with the highest import prices, which continue to grow, they are the lucrative markets for foreign suppliers of ceramic tiles. These countries include Indonesia ($12 per square meter), the U.S. ($12 per square meter), Saudi Arabia ($10 per square meter), Germany ($9.4 per square meter) and South Korea ($8.9 per square meter). 

Summary

Comparing the results of the 4 diagrams, we can state that Indonesia, China, the United States, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Iran, France, Germany and the Netherlands now appear to be the most promising markets for foreign suppliers of ceramic tile and porcelain stoneware in the world. In these countries, there is either a significant or rapidly growing volume of imports. Moreover, import prices in most of the above-mentioned countries remain relatively high.